Bernadette Greene-Placentia
Implied probability 15%+2
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 04:40 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 13% |
| 7 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the person sworn into the U.S. House for Arizona's 8th district in 2027 is a Democrat. It resolves to No if that member belongs to any other party or is independent. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Bernadette Greene as the deciding factor, but only the official party affiliation of the sworn-in representative matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 15%
- No 85%