$4/MTok or below
Why it moved: +6 points at 04:13 UTC, after marktechpost.com: OpenAI Launches GPT-6.1 Terra, Halving GPT-6.1 Sol’s API Price for Agent Work — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 29% |
| 27 Oct, 04:13 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 31% |
| 23 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 30% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 28% |
| 23 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 26% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 24% |
| 22 Oct, 00:38 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 29% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the input token price for OpenAI GPT 5.5 on its official API pricing page is at or below $4 in 2026. It resolves to No if that specific price remains above $4 during that year. Readers often mistake the linked story about GPT-6 pricing as the relevant metric, but only the GPT 5.5 input token price counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 29%
- No 71%