James Talarico, ≥8%
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$367
Total volume$185k
Liquidity$185k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 09:57 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 09:21 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 08:53 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 08:24 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 07:27 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 07:47 UTC | 10% |
| 1 Nov, 07:35 UTC | 8% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate election by a margin of 8% or more. The outcome is No if his margin of victory is less than 8%. Readers often mistake the linked headline about recent Democratic wins for the final result, but only the official margin in the 2026 election counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%