Mike Rogers, 0-2%
Implied probability 1%−12
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$30k
Liquidity$30k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Why it moved: −6 points at 23:46 UTC, after The Hill: Crockett: Stevens did El-Sayed 'a favor' among Black voters — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 23:10 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 08:02 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 06:30 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 02:51 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 22:24 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 21:55 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 21:12 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 20:51 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 08:29 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 04:19 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 03:13 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Nov, 19:09 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 18:21 UTC | 15% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Mike Rogers wins the 2026 Michigan Senate race by a margin between zero and two percent. The outcome is No if his victory margin falls outside that range or if he loses. Readers often mistake the date of the linked resignation story for the resolution deadline, but the actual deadline is the certification of the 2026 election results.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%