Susan Collins, 0-2%
The market favoured No at 88% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolved5 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 01:42 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 00:36 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 21:03 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 18:47 UTC | 10% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Susan Collins wins the 2026 Maine Senate election by a margin between 0% and 2%. The outcome is No if her victory margin falls outside that range or if she loses. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the official certification of results.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%