Before Nov 1, 2026
Implied probability 1%−2
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$91k
Liquidity$91k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 21:39 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 17:41 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 01:09 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 22:11 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 19:40 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 18:45 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 02:51 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 00:00 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 22:30 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 21:26 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 15:42 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 15:05 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 13:11 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 02:51 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 07:16 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 23:01 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 12:03 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Oct, 06:05 UTC | 7% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the French government declares a state of emergency between now and November 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such declaration occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about riots for the official trigger, but only a formal government declaration counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%