Arsenal
The market favoured No at 67% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$27k
Liquidity$27k
Resolved27 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −10 points at 22:23 UTC, after SkySports: Arsenal OUT on pens to League Two Fleetwood! — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 29% |
| 27 Oct, 21:26 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Oct, 20:03 UTC | 37% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 36% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 30% |
| 27 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 34% |
| 26 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 28% |
| 21 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 29% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 28% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Arsenal wins the 2026-27 EFL Carabao Cup. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific tournament. Readers often mistake this for the Premier League title or confuse the current season with the 2026-27 cycle.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%