United States
Why it moved: −4 points at 23:16 UTC, after Sky News: Ebola outbreak kills more than 5,000 people in Democratic Republic of Congo — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 30 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Oct, 13:50 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 19% |
| 29 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Oct, 05:44 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if an official report confirms a human case of Ebola disease in the United States between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if no such confirmed case is officially reported by that date. Readers often mistake this market for tracking plague outbreaks or deaths at foreign labs rather than confirmed domestic cases of Ebola.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 90%