Gemini (3+ times)
The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$550
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolved31 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 28 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 99% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 97% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 99% |
| 27 Oct, 20:39 UTC | 98% |
| 27 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 96% |
| 22 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 98% |
| 22 Oct, 14:39 UTC | 95% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if an Alphabet representative mentions Gemini three or more times during the upcoming earnings call and Q&A session. The outcome is No if that specific threshold is not met within that event. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about future product releases rather than a count of mentions in the current financial report.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%