Dividend
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$36k
Liquidity$36k
Resolved31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 02:06 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 58% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if a Costco representative mentions a dividend during the upcoming earnings call or its question-and-answer session. The outcome is No if no such mention occurs within that specific event. Readers often mistake any general discussion of profits for an actual dividend announcement.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%