Prime Day
Implied probability 99%+12
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves31 Mar 2027
Why it moved: +13 points at 21:14 UTC, after theinformation.com: Amazon Web Services Accelerates as Ecommerce Store Slows on Prime Day Change — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 99% |
| 29 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 94% |
| 29 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 81% |
| 29 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 87% |
| 29 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 83% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 84% |
| 29 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 87% |
| 29 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 89% |
| 28 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 85% |
| 28 Oct, 21:06 UTC | 87% |
| 27 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 90% |
| 26 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 82% |
| 25 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 90% |
| 24 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 89% |
| 24 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 61% |
| 23 Oct, 19:04 UTC | 88% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an Amazon representative mentions Prime Day during the upcoming earnings call or Q&A session. It resolves to No if they do not mention it in that specific setting. Readers often mistake the start date of the sales event for the resolution trigger, but only verbal confirmation on the call counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%