Matt Fitzpatrick
The market favoured No at 52% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 83%
24-hour volume$743
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 83% |
| 4 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Oct, 10:33 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 09:34 UTC | 48% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top five players at the 2026 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, including ties. It resolves to No if he does not finish in that range. Readers often mistake the current leaderboard position for the final result, but only the official tournament standings count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 83%
- No 17%