Before Nov 1, 2026
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 2%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$250k
Liquidity$250k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 10:41 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive agreement to merge or acquire each other before November 1, 2026. The announcement must be binding and result in common corporate ownership or a transfer of controlling interest. Readers often mistake analyst speculation for an official corporate announcement.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%