Marco Rubio
The market favoured No at 81% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$34k
Total volume$67k
Liquidity$67k
Resolved20 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 19:03 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 17:12 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 14:33 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 14:04 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 13:49 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Nov, 13:27 UTC | 12% |
| 6 Nov, 12:08 UTC | 11% |
| 6 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 17% |
| 6 Nov, 10:49 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 09:44 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Nov, 08:06 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 07:38 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 05:38 UTC | 15% |
| 6 Nov, 05:18 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 04:56 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 17% |
| 6 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 22% |
| 6 Nov, 00:12 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Nov, 19:07 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 28% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio becomes the first member of Donald Trump’s Cabinet to leave or announce his departure after May 22, 2026. It resolves to No if he remains in office past that date without being the first to exit.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%