Rank 1 to 2
Implied probability 3%−11
24-hour volume$77
Total volume$31k
Liquidity$31k
Resolves26 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 01:31 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 23% |
| 20 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 35% |
| 19 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 19% |
| 19 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 25% |
| 19 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 20% |
| 19 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 50% |
| 18 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 43% |
| 18 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 42% |
| 18 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 37% |
| 18 Oct, 04:11 UTC | 40% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 51% |
| 18 Oct, 02:31 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 52% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 51% |
| 17 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 46% |
| 17 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 52% |
| 17 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 51% |
| 17 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 54% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 56% |
| 17 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 40% |
| 17 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 43% |
| 17 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 43% |
| 17 Oct, 09:52 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 32% |
| 17 Oct, 07:47 UTC | 22% |
| 17 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 02:17 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 27% |
| 16 Oct, 23:02 UTC | 28% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 29% |
| 16 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 25% |
| 16 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 24% |
| 16 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 71% |
| 16 Oct, 04:42 UTC | 72% |
| 16 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 65% |
| 16 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 64% |
| 16 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 65% |
| 14 Oct, 23:05 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Olivia Rodrigo and Chappell Roan's song "Expectations" ranks between No. 1 and No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated October 31, 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the chart date for the release date or assume any ranking below No. 2 counts as a win.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%