Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?
Implied probability 29%−2
24-hour volume$315
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 08:45 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 07:35 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 12:07 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 11:04 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 08:11 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 04:37 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 23:53 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 23:13 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 22:51 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 20:16 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 13:00 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 11:03 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 10:36 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 08:57 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 07:58 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 07:02 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 06:20 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 05:45 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 04:06 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 03:49 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 02:36 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 00:18 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 23:54 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 23:23 UTC | 34% |
| 29 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Sept, 20:42 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 20:26 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 17:57 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 34% |
| 29 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 14:53 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 13:58 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 12:48 UTC | 34% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 10:15 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 09:51 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 09:09 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 08:27 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Sept, 08:12 UTC | 23% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Reserve Bank of Australia raises its cash rate target by exactly 25 basis points at the November 2-3, 2026 meeting. The No outcome applies for any other change, including no change or a different amount. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about past rate hikes as relevant, but only the specific decision from the November 2026 meeting counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 29%
- No 71%
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