Macron out by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 5%−1
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$91k
Liquidity$66k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 22:31 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 4% |
| 19 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 19:45 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Emmanuel Macron stops being President of France at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if he remains in office through that deadline. Readers often mistake temporary absences or fuel supply deals for a change in presidency.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%
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