Will Isaias make landfall in Mississippi as a hurricane?
Why it moved: −4 points at 21:16 UTC, after www.espn.com: Trump will not attend Georgia-Alabama game due to Hurricane Isaias — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 2% |
| 10 Oct, 07:10 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 05:46 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 00:39 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 00:12 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 22:38 UTC | 2% |
| 9 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 9% |
| 9 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 10:40 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 06:32 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 05:07 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 7% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 10% |
| 9 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 12% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 12% |
| 8 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 13% |
| 8 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 12% |
| 8 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 05:52 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 9% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the National Hurricane Center explicitly reports that Isaias made landfall in Mississippi while maintaining hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph before October 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution relies strictly on the official NHC advisory text stating the center's position and intensity; visual track maps or wind speed estimates from other agencies do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 97%
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Stories on this market
- Hurricane Isaias Kills Two, Leaves Hundreds of Thousands Without Power in US Southeast world
- Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Weakens Over Alabama, Flash Floods Continue weather
- Trump Cancels Plans To Attend Georgia-Alabama Game Amid Hurricane Isaias sports
- Hurricane Isaias Impacts College Football Schedule, Alabama-Georgia Game Likely On sports