Will the Republicans win the Maine governor race in 2026?
The market favoured No at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$34k
Liquidity$93k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 00:22 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 3% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins. Readers often mistake the linked story about current races for the resolution, but this market depends on the 2026 election results called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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