Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Implied probability 10%
24-hour volume$279
Total volume$354k
Liquidity$23k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 14:44 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Nov, 07:13 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 03:41 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 14:53 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 13:40 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 11:20 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 09:54 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 10% |
| 2 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 17:41 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 17:19 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 10:50 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 08:36 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 08:29 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 17% |
| 31 Oct, 09:52 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 08:49 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 01:32 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Oct, 21:46 UTC | 19% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 18% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 18% |
| 30 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 19% |
| 30 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Oct, 11:38 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 20% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
For the outcome to be "Yes," Tesla and SpaceX must officially announce a merger or acquisition by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement can come from either company, and partial sales count if they result in a controlling interest (typically over 50% ownership).
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 91%
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