Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?
Implied probability 6%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$31k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 16:47 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 16:12 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 12:14 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 11:13 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 06:51 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 05:32 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Nov, 20:08 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 18:49 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 15:27 UTC | 6% |
| 2 Nov, 11:22 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Oct, 04:17 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 8% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the national popular vote for U.S. House seats by a margin between 4% and 6%. It resolves to No if that margin falls outside that range or if Republicans win. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but only the official vote totals published by the US Clerk of the House count, not early polls or unofficial media estimates.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 95%
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