Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?
The market favoured Yes at 60% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$35k
Liquidity$14k
Resolved28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 27 Sept, 21:37 UTC | 100% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 98% |
| 27 Sept, 20:29 UTC | 98% |
| 27 Sept, 19:33 UTC | 98% |
| 27 Sept, 19:27 UTC | 90% |
| 27 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 78% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 79% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 80% |
| 27 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Sept, 14:45 UTC | 78% |
| 27 Sept, 14:10 UTC | 77% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 77% |
| 27 Sept, 12:39 UTC | 77% |
| 27 Sept, 12:08 UTC | 77% |
| 27 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 77% |
| 27 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 80% |
| 27 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 77% |
| 27 Sept, 08:15 UTC | 77% |
| 27 Sept, 07:55 UTC | 77% |
| 27 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 76% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 78% |
| 27 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 83% |
| 27 Sept, 04:18 UTC | 84% |
| 27 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 79% |
| 27 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 79% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 73% |
| 27 Sept, 02:14 UTC | 61% |
| 27 Sept, 01:55 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 00:57 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 68% |
| 26 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Sept, 21:41 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Sept, 18:59 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Sept, 16:03 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Sept, 15:14 UTC | 92% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Philadelphia Phillies officially secure a playoff berth in the 2026 MLB season. It resolves to No if the team is mathematically eliminated or if the playoffs are cancelled or delayed past October 31, 2026. Readers often mistake regular-season tiebreaker games for the actual playoffs, but these do not count toward clinching a spot.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →