Will Champi peak as a Very strong typhoon?
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$655
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$0
Resolved30 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 11:50 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 12:02 UTC | 0% |
| 23 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 1% |
What counts
The market resolves based on the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Typhoon Champi in its official published analyses. For the outcome "Yes" to occur, JMA must classify the storm as "Very strong" or higher at its peak. Readers often mistakenly rely on forecasts from other agencies or post-season data, but only real-time JMA classifications count for resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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