Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 14%−2
24-hour volume$316
Total volume$47k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 11:57 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 10:57 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 10:14 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 08:29 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Nov, 13:02 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Nov, 12:55 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 17% |
| 31 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 12:40 UTC | 15% |
| 31 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 16% |
| 31 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 17% |
| 31 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 04:14 UTC | 15% |
| 31 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Oct, 22:40 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI holds the top spot on the Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A tie for first place counts as a win. Readers often mistake the deadline for midnight UTC or assume any general AI ranking qualifies instead of the specific Chatbot Arena leaderboard.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 14%
- No 86%
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