Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?
Implied probability 26%−52
24-hour volume$4.5M
Total volume$4.7M
Liquidity$61k
Resolves6 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 26% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 79% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 78% |
| 6 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 77% |
| 6 Oct, 05:08 UTC | 78% |
| 6 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 80% |
| 5 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 13:32 UTC | 78% |
| 5 Oct, 03:39 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 77% |
| 4 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 05:37 UTC | 75% |
| 4 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 04:09 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 03:02 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Sept, 16:06 UTC | 76% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Spain wins the match scheduled for October 6, 2026, based only on the result within regular time and stoppage. It resolves to No if Spain does not win, including draws or losses, or if the game is canceled without a make-up match.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 26%
- No 75%
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