Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?
Implied probability 0%−2
24-hour volume$900
Total volume$59k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 10:41 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 3% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome requires a consensus of credible reporting that Eritrean military forces established control over Ethiopian territory in a military operation lasting at least 48 hours by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if this specific condition is not met, including cases where forces enter but do not establish control or withdraw within the required timeframe.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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