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Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

Resolved: No 3d ago

The market favoured No at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$194k
Total volume$517k
Liquidity$189k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
How the odds moved · Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
0%50%100%0%30 Oct, 04:36 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
4 Nov, 02:34 UTC0%
4 Nov, 02:26 UTC1%
4 Nov, 01:57 UTC1%
4 Nov, 01:27 UTC1%
4 Nov, 00:58 UTC2%
4 Nov, 00:29 UTC2%
3 Nov, 23:53 UTC2%
3 Nov, 23:10 UTC2%
3 Nov, 22:49 UTC3%
3 Nov, 22:19 UTC3%
3 Nov, 21:57 UTC3%
3 Nov, 21:26 UTC3%
3 Nov, 20:19 UTC3%
3 Nov, 19:50 UTC4%
3 Nov, 17:51 UTC3%
3 Nov, 15:50 UTC4%
3 Nov, 15:29 UTC4%
3 Nov, 14:32 UTC4%
3 Nov, 14:25 UTC4%
3 Nov, 13:48 UTC4%
3 Nov, 08:32 UTC4%
3 Nov, 08:25 UTC4%
3 Nov, 07:48 UTC4%
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC4%
3 Nov, 04:51 UTC4%
3 Nov, 04:29 UTC4%
3 Nov, 03:40 UTC3%
3 Nov, 02:23 UTC4%
3 Nov, 01:54 UTC4%
3 Nov, 01:24 UTC4%
3 Nov, 00:26 UTC3%
2 Nov, 23:51 UTC3%
2 Nov, 23:23 UTC3%
2 Nov, 22:54 UTC3%
2 Nov, 22:17 UTC3%
2 Nov, 21:55 UTC3%
2 Nov, 20:44 UTC3%
2 Nov, 20:16 UTC3%
2 Nov, 19:33 UTC3%
2 Nov, 19:26 UTC3%
2 Nov, 18:56 UTC3%
2 Nov, 18:27 UTC3%
2 Nov, 17:41 UTC3%
2 Nov, 17:04 UTC3%
2 Nov, 16:27 UTC3%
2 Nov, 15:56 UTC3%
2 Nov, 15:27 UTC3%
2 Nov, 14:56 UTC2%
2 Nov, 14:03 UTC3%
2 Nov, 13:56 UTC3%
2 Nov, 10:07 UTC3%
2 Nov, 09:39 UTC3%
2 Nov, 09:25 UTC3%
2 Nov, 08:57 UTC3%
2 Nov, 08:08 UTC2%
2 Nov, 07:47 UTC2%
2 Nov, 06:49 UTC2%
2 Nov, 06:14 UTC2%
2 Nov, 05:53 UTC2%
2 Nov, 05:09 UTC3%
2 Nov, 04:54 UTC2%
2 Nov, 03:28 UTC3%
2 Nov, 01:02 UTC3%
2 Nov, 00:40 UTC3%
1 Nov, 21:19 UTC3%
1 Nov, 19:52 UTC3%
1 Nov, 17:42 UTC3%
1 Nov, 17:27 UTC3%
1 Nov, 16:36 UTC3%
1 Nov, 15:08 UTC3%
1 Nov, 14:45 UTC3%
1 Nov, 12:55 UTC2%
1 Nov, 09:28 UTC3%
1 Nov, 08:25 UTC2%
1 Nov, 07:59 UTC3%
1 Nov, 06:36 UTC2%
1 Nov, 06:15 UTC2%
1 Nov, 05:47 UTC2%
1 Nov, 05:04 UTC2%
1 Nov, 04:36 UTC2%
1 Nov, 04:29 UTC2%
1 Nov, 02:22 UTC2%
1 Nov, 01:31 UTC2%
1 Nov, 01:24 UTC2%
1 Nov, 00:14 UTC2%
31 Oct, 23:53 UTC2%
31 Oct, 23:17 UTC2%
31 Oct, 22:43 UTC2%
31 Oct, 22:00 UTC2%
31 Oct, 21:39 UTC2%
31 Oct, 20:57 UTC2%
31 Oct, 20:21 UTC2%
31 Oct, 19:59 UTC2%
31 Oct, 19:17 UTC2%
31 Oct, 18:19 UTC2%
31 Oct, 17:49 UTC2%
31 Oct, 16:58 UTC2%
31 Oct, 16:29 UTC2%
31 Oct, 14:08 UTC3%
31 Oct, 13:31 UTC3%
31 Oct, 11:57 UTC3%
31 Oct, 11:21 UTC3%
31 Oct, 10:30 UTC3%
31 Oct, 10:06 UTC3%
31 Oct, 09:59 UTC3%
31 Oct, 08:56 UTC3%
31 Oct, 08:28 UTC2%
31 Oct, 07:53 UTC3%
31 Oct, 07:11 UTC3%
31 Oct, 06:57 UTC3%
31 Oct, 06:15 UTC3%
31 Oct, 05:33 UTC3%
31 Oct, 05:26 UTC3%
31 Oct, 04:35 UTC2%
31 Oct, 04:14 UTC2%
31 Oct, 03:52 UTC2%
31 Oct, 01:32 UTC2%
31 Oct, 01:18 UTC3%
31 Oct, 00:24 UTC3%
30 Oct, 23:55 UTC3%
30 Oct, 22:54 UTC3%
30 Oct, 22:26 UTC3%
30 Oct, 21:09 UTC3%
30 Oct, 20:51 UTC3%
30 Oct, 20:15 UTC3%
30 Oct, 19:20 UTC3%
30 Oct, 18:37 UTC3%
30 Oct, 17:20 UTC3%
30 Oct, 16:32 UTC3%
30 Oct, 16:25 UTC3%
30 Oct, 15:43 UTC3%
30 Oct, 15:28 UTC3%
30 Oct, 14:16 UTC3%
30 Oct, 13:13 UTC3%
30 Oct, 12:45 UTC3%
30 Oct, 12:24 UTC3%
30 Oct, 11:59 UTC3%
30 Oct, 11:24 UTC3%
30 Oct, 10:43 UTC3%
30 Oct, 06:28 UTC3%
30 Oct, 04:36 UTC3%

What counts

The market resolves based on the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. For 'Yes' to occur, a Republican nominee must win; for 'No', any other candidate must win. Readers often mistake the linked story about a New Jersey governor as relevant, but only the NY election result matters.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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