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Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?

Resolved: Yes 9d ago

The market favoured No at 68% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$23k
Liquidity$14k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
How the odds moved · Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?
0%50%100%100%23 Oct, 05:46 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
29 Oct, 13:07 UTC100%
29 Oct, 12:11 UTC100%
29 Oct, 11:39 UTC99%
29 Oct, 11:20 UTC100%
29 Oct, 10:26 UTC100%
29 Oct, 09:55 UTC99%
29 Oct, 07:58 UTC99%
29 Oct, 07:19 UTC99%
29 Oct, 06:11 UTC98%
29 Oct, 05:51 UTC98%
29 Oct, 05:29 UTC98%
29 Oct, 04:49 UTC98%
29 Oct, 04:28 UTC90%
29 Oct, 03:49 UTC44%
29 Oct, 03:28 UTC16%
29 Oct, 02:53 UTC18%
29 Oct, 02:20 UTC16%
29 Oct, 01:59 UTC15%
29 Oct, 01:18 UTC13%
29 Oct, 00:55 UTC16%
29 Oct, 00:27 UTC15%
28 Oct, 23:54 UTC15%
28 Oct, 23:26 UTC17%
28 Oct, 22:18 UTC19%
28 Oct, 21:57 UTC18%
28 Oct, 21:22 UTC18%
28 Oct, 20:59 UTC18%
28 Oct, 20:17 UTC19%
28 Oct, 19:40 UTC16%
28 Oct, 18:45 UTC17%
28 Oct, 18:22 UTC17%
28 Oct, 17:54 UTC19%
28 Oct, 17:16 UTC19%
28 Oct, 16:59 UTC23%
28 Oct, 16:24 UTC26%
28 Oct, 15:47 UTC27%
28 Oct, 14:56 UTC33%
28 Oct, 11:37 UTC33%
28 Oct, 05:19 UTC34%
28 Oct, 03:22 UTC35%
28 Oct, 01:07 UTC35%
28 Oct, 00:28 UTC35%
27 Oct, 23:45 UTC39%
27 Oct, 22:58 UTC37%
27 Oct, 22:23 UTC37%
27 Oct, 21:19 UTC35%
27 Oct, 20:24 UTC34%
27 Oct, 19:55 UTC33%
27 Oct, 19:19 UTC34%
27 Oct, 18:41 UTC33%
27 Oct, 18:19 UTC34%
27 Oct, 17:07 UTC34%
27 Oct, 16:52 UTC34%
27 Oct, 15:49 UTC35%
27 Oct, 15:12 UTC35%
27 Oct, 14:07 UTC33%
27 Oct, 13:57 UTC36%
27 Oct, 13:26 UTC35%
27 Oct, 12:57 UTC34%
27 Oct, 12:15 UTC33%
27 Oct, 11:51 UTC36%
27 Oct, 11:22 UTC32%
27 Oct, 10:49 UTC33%
27 Oct, 10:27 UTC34%
27 Oct, 09:51 UTC32%
27 Oct, 09:22 UTC32%
27 Oct, 08:54 UTC34%
27 Oct, 06:20 UTC33%
27 Oct, 05:54 UTC32%
27 Oct, 05:20 UTC33%
27 Oct, 04:26 UTC34%
27 Oct, 03:59 UTC35%
27 Oct, 02:58 UTC33%
27 Oct, 02:16 UTC33%
27 Oct, 01:39 UTC32%
27 Oct, 01:25 UTC32%
27 Oct, 00:31 UTC33%
27 Oct, 00:17 UTC33%
26 Oct, 23:31 UTC35%
26 Oct, 23:17 UTC33%
26 Oct, 22:08 UTC29%
26 Oct, 21:45 UTC28%
26 Oct, 21:11 UTC28%
26 Oct, 20:56 UTC28%
26 Oct, 17:45 UTC31%
26 Oct, 14:03 UTC31%
26 Oct, 13:38 UTC31%
26 Oct, 13:23 UTC36%
26 Oct, 12:39 UTC42%
26 Oct, 12:25 UTC41%
26 Oct, 11:56 UTC38%
26 Oct, 11:16 UTC35%
26 Oct, 10:07 UTC23%
26 Oct, 09:39 UTC23%
26 Oct, 08:02 UTC22%
26 Oct, 07:44 UTC23%
26 Oct, 06:27 UTC22%
26 Oct, 05:53 UTC23%
26 Oct, 04:57 UTC23%
26 Oct, 03:27 UTC24%
26 Oct, 02:27 UTC24%
26 Oct, 01:12 UTC24%
25 Oct, 23:25 UTC25%
25 Oct, 22:54 UTC26%
25 Oct, 22:20 UTC25%
25 Oct, 21:21 UTC24%
25 Oct, 20:56 UTC24%
25 Oct, 20:26 UTC24%
25 Oct, 19:46 UTC22%
25 Oct, 19:11 UTC22%
25 Oct, 18:50 UTC22%
25 Oct, 17:49 UTC35%
25 Oct, 16:49 UTC35%
25 Oct, 16:21 UTC35%
25 Oct, 15:53 UTC35%
25 Oct, 15:17 UTC35%
25 Oct, 13:17 UTC35%
25 Oct, 12:34 UTC36%
25 Oct, 12:10 UTC32%
25 Oct, 11:56 UTC39%
25 Oct, 11:28 UTC35%
25 Oct, 10:49 UTC35%
25 Oct, 10:13 UTC32%
25 Oct, 09:58 UTC33%
25 Oct, 00:21 UTC26%
24 Oct, 18:29 UTC25%
24 Oct, 17:54 UTC24%
24 Oct, 17:15 UTC22%
24 Oct, 16:54 UTC22%
24 Oct, 15:48 UTC21%
24 Oct, 15:27 UTC22%
24 Oct, 14:40 UTC23%
24 Oct, 14:27 UTC23%
24 Oct, 13:36 UTC23%
24 Oct, 13:21 UTC22%
24 Oct, 12:11 UTC25%
24 Oct, 11:57 UTC24%
24 Oct, 11:12 UTC25%
24 Oct, 10:58 UTC24%
24 Oct, 09:29 UTC22%
24 Oct, 08:57 UTC23%
24 Oct, 08:29 UTC23%
24 Oct, 07:17 UTC23%
24 Oct, 06:58 UTC25%
24 Oct, 04:25 UTC24%
24 Oct, 03:51 UTC20%
23 Oct, 23:57 UTC19%
23 Oct, 23:17 UTC20%
23 Oct, 22:42 UTC20%
23 Oct, 22:21 UTC21%
23 Oct, 21:48 UTC21%
23 Oct, 21:27 UTC24%
23 Oct, 20:49 UTC25%
23 Oct, 18:40 UTC26%
23 Oct, 18:22 UTC26%
23 Oct, 17:46 UTC25%
23 Oct, 17:24 UTC25%
23 Oct, 16:57 UTC26%
23 Oct, 13:11 UTC32%
23 Oct, 12:50 UTC28%
23 Oct, 12:22 UTC26%
23 Oct, 11:55 UTC28%
23 Oct, 11:20 UTC30%
23 Oct, 10:46 UTC28%
23 Oct, 09:55 UTC30%
23 Oct, 08:53 UTC29%
23 Oct, 08:00 UTC30%
23 Oct, 06:39 UTC30%
23 Oct, 06:11 UTC30%
23 Oct, 05:46 UTC30%

What counts

The market counts each calendar day in October 2026 on which North Korea launches a ballistic, cruise, or anti-ship missile. If a launch spans multiple days, it counts only for the day it begins. Readers often mistake surface-to-air missiles or rocket artillery for qualifying tests.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

View this market on Polymarket →

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