France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 7 Nov, 06:19 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Nov, 05:37 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Nov, 02:53 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 00:23 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 21:38 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Nov, 21:23 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Nov, 20:46 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 16:05 UTC | 3% |
| 6 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Nov, 13:35 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 13:13 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 09:23 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 02:14 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 6% |
| 5 Nov, 20:20 UTC | 6% |
| 5 Nov, 19:36 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 11:06 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Nov, 21:05 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Nov, 15:42 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 16:22 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Nov, 09:15 UTC | 9% |
| 1 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 8% |
| 1 Nov, 07:52 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
A Yes outcome requires a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 to enter into effect by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This specific legal status must apply to any part of the French Republic, including overseas territories. Readers often mistake other emergency measures, such as a public health state of emergency or a state of siege, for the required declaration.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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