Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
The market favoured No at 65% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$1.8M
Total volume$2.5M
Liquidity$303k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Nov, 22:12 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 18:21 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Nov, 14:46 UTC | 33% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 13:48 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 12:42 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 11:13 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 10:22 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 08:46 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 07:48 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 21:05 UTC | 35% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 37% |
| 2 Nov, 18:49 UTC | 38% |
| 2 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 39% |
| 2 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 06:42 UTC | 38% |
| 2 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Nov, 03:42 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Nov, 21:19 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Nov, 15:16 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 01:10 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 00:49 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Nov, 00:21 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 22:43 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 21:46 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 20:21 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 36% |
| 31 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 10:30 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 06:22 UTC | 38% |
| 31 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 37% |
| 31 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 34% |
| 31 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 32% |
| 31 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 32% |
| 31 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 23:02 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 22:00 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 20:00 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 19:53 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 18:51 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 29% |
| 29 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 08:26 UTC | 29% |
| 29 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Oct, 21:15 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 25% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Florida governor election and No if they do not. The market resolves once Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or based on official certification if they do not agree.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →