NRL: Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights
The market favoured Sydney Roosters at 68% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$74k
Total volume$148
Liquidity$3k
Resolved11 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 70% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 71% |
| 4 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 69% |
| 4 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 68% |
| 4 Oct, 06:33 UTC | 70% |
| 4 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 71% |
| 4 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 70% |
| 4 Oct, 05:04 UTC | 72% |
| 4 Oct, 04:58 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Oct, 04:45 UTC | 67% |
What counts
The Sydney Roosters outcome wins if they win the final official result of the October 4, 2026 match, including extra time or golden point. The Newcastle Knights outcome wins if they secure that same final victory. Readers often mistake a draw for a loss for one side, but a draw triggers an automatic 50-50 split instead.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Sydney Roosters 100%
- Newcastle Knights 0%
View this market on Polymarket →