China GDP Grows 4.5% in Q3 as AI Boom Lifts Exports
China's third-quarter GDP expanded by 4.5%, beating forecasts and outpacing the IMF's previous continental projections, driven by an AI-fueled export surge.
Kalshi By 2030 22% +3IMF
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Markets on IMF
Coverage vs. odds, last two weeks
How much the press wrote about IMF each day, and what its busiest market did over the same days.
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 2% |
Stories
French Riots and Debt Woes Drive Market Selloffs and Insurance Losses
Investors reprice French risk as riots trigger insurance losses and political instability fuels a bond rout amid rising fiscal concerns.
UK Chancellor Healey to Raise Bank Taxes While Ruling Out Capital Gains Hike
John Healey plans to increase bank levies for economic support, rules out a capital gains tax rise, and sees strong jobs data bolstering the case for Bank of England rate hikes.
Kalshi Bank of England 92%