Republican party
Implied probability 87%+2
24-hour volume$6
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves7 Nov 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 87% |
| 6 Nov, 19:03 UTC | 87% |
| 6 Nov, 02:52 UTC | 88% |
| 5 Nov, 06:11 UTC | 86% |
| 5 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 89% |
| 5 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 90% |
| 5 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 23:40 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 83% |
| 4 Nov, 18:42 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 13:09 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 84% |
| 4 Nov, 11:47 UTC | 86% |
| 4 Nov, 09:21 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 85% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 70% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Nov, 13:11 UTC | 77% |
| 2 Nov, 17:11 UTC | 75% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Republican is sworn in as a U.S. Senator from South Carolina for the term starting in 2029. It resolves to No if that specific event does not occur. Readers often mistake the date of the election or the announcement of a candidate for the actual swearing-in date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 87%
- No 13%