Democratic party
Implied probability 53%−3
24-hour volume$12
Total volume$36k
Liquidity$36k
Resolves7 Nov 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 53% |
| 6 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 53% |
| 5 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 55% |
| 5 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 56% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Nov, 21:18 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 19:49 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 61% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 49% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Democrat takes office as an Ohio Senator starting in 2029. It resolves to No if someone else holds that seat at the start of that term. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline, but the actual trigger is when the winner is sworn in.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 53%
- No 47%