Democratic party
Why it moved: −34 points at 01:35 UTC, after The Guardian US: Democrat Chris Pappas wins New Hampshire Senate race to become first out gay senator — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 08:31 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Nov, 03:41 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 03:03 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Nov, 01:35 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Nov, 18:06 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 06:15 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 50% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 15:19 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Nov, 10:14 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Nov, 03:42 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 01:32 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Nov, 18:40 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 49% |
| 29 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 19% |
| 28 Oct, 19:40 UTC | 25% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Democrat takes office as a U.S. Senator from Kansas for the term starting in 2029. It resolves to No if that specific condition is not met. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the swearing-in date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 17%
- No 83%