Republican party
Implied probability 68%−12
24-hour volume$429
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves7 Nov 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 68% |
| 5 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 68% |
| 5 Nov, 04:05 UTC | 70% |
| 5 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 75% |
| 5 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 73% |
| 4 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 80% |
| 4 Nov, 20:06 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Nov, 14:23 UTC | 83% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Republican representative takes office as a U.S. Senator from Florida for the term starting in 2029. It resolves to No if that specific condition does not occur. Readers often mistake the linked story about an arrest for the resolution criteria, but only the official swearing-in of the senator matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 68%
- No 32%