Republican party
Implied probability 87%−8
24-hour volume$42
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves7 Nov 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 21:18 UTC | 87% |
| 4 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 19:19 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Nov, 04:31 UTC | 89% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Republican is sworn in as an Arkansas Senator for the term starting in 2029. It resolves to No if no Republican takes that specific seat. Readers often mistake the swearing-in date for the election date, but only the official oath-taking matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 87%
- No 13%