Before Oct 20, 2026
The market favoured Yes at 85% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 94%
24-hour volume$262k
Total volume$1.2M
Liquidity$1.2M
Resolved20 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 17:43 UTC | 93% |
| 17 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 92% |
| 17 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 93% |
| 17 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 12:55 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 12:27 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Oct, 10:27 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 08:59 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 06:54 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 05:42 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 04:16 UTC | 97% |
| 17 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 95% |
| 17 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 97% |
| 17 Oct, 02:11 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Oct, 01:57 UTC | 94% |
| 17 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 90% |
| 17 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 84% |
| 17 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 89% |
| 16 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 85% |
| 16 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 86% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 85% |
| 16 Oct, 22:09 UTC | 83% |
| 16 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 85% |
| 16 Oct, 21:23 UTC | 86% |
| 16 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 88% |
| 16 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 89% |
| 16 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 93% |
| 16 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 94% |
| 16 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 92% |
| 16 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 86% |
| 16 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 77% |
| 16 Oct, 17:29 UTC | 36% |
| 16 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 7% |
| 16 Oct, 16:20 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 9% |
| 16 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 06:08 UTC | 7% |
| 16 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 2% |
| 16 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 2% |
| 15 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 5% |
| 15 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 7% |
| 15 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 20:10 UTC | 9% |
| 15 Oct, 19:35 UTC | 10% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 11% |
| 15 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 12% |
| 15 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 2% |
| 15 Oct, 15:52 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 12:23 UTC | 2% |
| 15 Oct, 05:41 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 05:02 UTC | 2% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 2% |
| 14 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Oct, 10:43 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 3% |
| 14 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 2% |
| 14 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 2% |
| 13 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 1% |
| 13 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 16:33 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 15:32 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Katie Zacharia leaves her role as White House Press Secretary before October 20, 2026. It resolves to No if she remains in that position through that date. Readers often mistake the announcement of her appointment for the resolution event, but only her departure triggers a Yes outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 94%
- No 6%