Elena Rybakina
The market favoured Yes at 62% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolved30 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Oct, 05:42 UTC | 76% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 56% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 61% |
| 30 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 56% |
| 30 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 53% |
| 30 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 51% |
| 29 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 46% |
| 29 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 50% |
| 29 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 47% |
| 29 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 50% |
| 29 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 48% |
| 29 Oct, 19:00 UTC | 50% |
| 29 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 62% |
| 29 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 52% |
| 29 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 62% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 45% |
| 28 Oct, 11:28 UTC | 41% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Elena Rybakina wins the 2026 WTA Tokyo professional tennis tournament. It resolves to No if she does not win that specific event. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the calendar year instead of the conclusion of this particular tournament.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%