Indiana
The market favoured No at 60% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 5%
24-hour volume$522
Total volume$49k
Liquidity$49k
Resolved25 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 15:30 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Sept, 16:39 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 19% |
| 29 Sept, 07:10 UTC | 17% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 19% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 20% |
What counts
Indiana must win the first-round playoff series against Las Vegas for the outcome to be Yes. The market resolves based on the official series result, not individual game scores. Readers often mistake winning a single game as sufficient for resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%