Golden State
The market favoured Yes at 58% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$2.9M
Total volume$2.9M
Liquidity$2.9M
Resolved22 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 19 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 58% |
| 18 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 58% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 12:28 UTC | 57% |
| 18 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 58% |
| 18 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 59% |
| 18 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 59% |
| 18 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 58% |
| 18 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 59% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 58% |
| 17 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 56% |
| 17 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 56% |
| 16 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 59% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Golden State wins the specific women's professional basketball game against Atlanta scheduled for October 19, 2026. It resolves to No if Golden State does not win that exact game. Readers often mistake this outcome for any other Golden State victory or a different sport entirely.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%