Inflation (5+ times)
The market favoured Yes at 64% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −53 points at 06:29 UTC, after Bloomberg Technology: Full Interview: Fed's Warsh on the Global Economy, AI — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 17% |
| 15 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 70% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Kevin Warsh says "Inflation" five or more times during his scheduled Fireside Chat with the International Monetary Fund on October 15, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not reach that count in that specific event. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the source of truth, but only the actual speech at the IMF event counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%