Before 2050
Implied probability 69%
24-hour volume$1
Total volume$22k
Liquidity$22k
Resolves1 Jan 2050
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 69% |
| 7 Nov, 05:43 UTC | 69% |
| 6 Nov, 10:35 UTC | 66% |
| 5 Nov, 03:30 UTC | 69% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Nov, 12:12 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 64% |
| 31 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 70% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if global temperatures hit or pass 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels in any single year before January 1, 2050. The outcome is No if that threshold remains unbreached by the deadline. Readers often mistake this for a long-term average rather than a specific annual peak.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 69%
- No 31%