At least 48%
The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −46 points at 22:37 UTC, after France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo: ¿En qué se distancian Lula y Flávio Bolsonaro de cara al balotaje en Brasil? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 99% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 88% |
| 25 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 51% |
| 25 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 98% |
| 25 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 99% |
| 25 Oct, 15:32 UTC | 97% |
| 25 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 99% |
| 25 Oct, 12:10 UTC | 98% |
| 25 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 99% |
| 25 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 98% |
| 25 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 97% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 98% |
| 25 Oct, 07:11 UTC | 97% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 98% |
| 24 Oct, 22:05 UTC | 97% |
| 24 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 96% |
| 24 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 97% |
| 24 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 95% |
| 24 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 98% |
| 23 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 97% |
| 23 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 97% |
| 23 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Oct, 14:33 UTC | 97% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro receives at least 48% of the certified popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome depends entirely on the final official certification of the vote count, not on early polls or projections.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%