Charli xcx
The market favoured No at 91% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolved27 Sept 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 02:33 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 01:11 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 22:32 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 18:44 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 01:48 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 20:53 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 20:01 UTC | 5% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Charli XCX wins Best Long Form Video at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. The outcome is No if she does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake the linked Madonna collaboration for a relevant factor, but only the VMA result matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%