Madonna
The market favoured Yes at 73% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$37k
Liquidity$37k
Resolved27 Sept 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 28 Sept, 01:36 UTC | 99% |
| 28 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 91% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 83% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 82% |
| 27 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Sept, 23:16 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Sept, 21:43 UTC | 81% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 82% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 74% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 74% |
| 27 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 86% |
| 27 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 71% |
| 27 Sept, 14:38 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Sept, 11:33 UTC | 74% |
| 27 Sept, 10:37 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Sept, 09:50 UTC | 75% |
| 27 Sept, 09:09 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Sept, 08:01 UTC | 71% |
| 27 Sept, 07:55 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Sept, 07:21 UTC | 79% |
| 27 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 73% |
| 27 Sept, 05:30 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Sept, 23:42 UTC | 75% |
| 26 Sept, 23:09 UTC | 80% |
| 26 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 67% |
| 26 Sept, 20:44 UTC | 50% |
| 26 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 50% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 52% |
| 26 Sept, 13:06 UTC | 46% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 49% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 51% |
| 26 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 53% |
| 26 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Sept, 22:09 UTC | 51% |
| 25 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 52% |
| 25 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Sept, 18:29 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 56% |
| 25 Sept, 15:50 UTC | 57% |
| 25 Sept, 15:27 UTC | 60% |
| 25 Sept, 12:38 UTC | 61% |
| 25 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 62% |
| 25 Sept, 08:26 UTC | 65% |
| 25 Sept, 06:23 UTC | 61% |
| 25 Sept, 04:35 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 53% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 48% |
| 25 Sept, 02:26 UTC | 51% |
| 25 Sept, 01:06 UTC | 49% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 52% |
| 25 Sept, 00:27 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 19:17 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 18:56 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 18:09 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Sept, 17:34 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Sept, 17:09 UTC | 44% |
| 24 Sept, 16:33 UTC | 48% |
| 24 Sept, 15:11 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Sept, 14:18 UTC | 41% |
| 24 Sept, 04:43 UTC | 43% |
| 24 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 44% |
| 23 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 44% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Sept, 18:47 UTC | 44% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 43% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Madonna wins the Best Dance award at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. The outcome is No if she does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake other awards or nominations for the required victory.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%