Ella Langley
The market favoured Yes at 94% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$29k
Liquidity$29k
Resolved27 Sept 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 28 Sept, 02:41 UTC | 91% |
| 28 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 86% |
| 28 Sept, 01:43 UTC | 95% |
| 28 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 93% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 93% |
| 28 Sept, 00:14 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 23:44 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 23:16 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 20:36 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 15:52 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 12:39 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 11:33 UTC | 92% |
| 27 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 91% |
| 27 Sept, 07:07 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 03:19 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 02:14 UTC | 94% |
| 27 Sept, 01:41 UTC | 93% |
| 27 Sept, 00:50 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Sept, 23:42 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 94% |
| 26 Sept, 21:49 UTC | 92% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 93% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 94% |
| 25 Sept, 18:11 UTC | 88% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ella Langley wins Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. It resolves to No if she does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake the linked news story about her responding to a fan proposal as the resolution event, but only the award result matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%