One Nation
Implied probability 54%−4
24-hour volume$24
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves28 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 54% |
| 30 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 54% |
| 25 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 58% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if One Nation holds the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election. It resolves to No if they do not hold that position. Readers often mistake the linked news story about abortion funding for the actual resolution criteria.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 54%
- No 46%