Farm / Farmer
The market favoured Yes at 89% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved9 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 27 Oct, 00:38 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Oct, 00:01 UTC | 88% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if JD Vance uses the phrase "Farm / Farmer" during his Midterm Rally in Topeka, Kansas. The event must take place on October 26, 2026, as originally scheduled for this condition to be met. Readers often mistake the grant announcement itself for the trigger, but only Vance's specific speech at that rally counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%