Illegal Alien
The market favoured No at 80% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolved31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 18 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 99% |
| 17 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 45% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if JD Vance uses the specific phrase "Illegal Alien" during the CBS Town Hall originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the actual broadcast date or a different event for the source of truth.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%